Foresight and Scenario Development for the Rhenish Mining District
Indeland 2060: From Open-Pit Mine to Region of the Future
Scenario development and communication for the transformation of the Rhenish mining district
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A vast hole where coal was once mined. Soon, a lake that will outlast generations. In between: 30 years of transformation. What will life in the Indeland be like in 2060, and how do you convey to an entire region where that journey might lead? Together with more than 70 participants, we developed four future scenarios that translate complex transformation processes into accessible stories and serve as a guide for citizens and planners alike.
The Challenge
Between Coal Phase-Out and Lake District
The Rhenish mining district is facing its biggest turning point in decades. By 2029, lignite extraction at the Inden open-pit mine will end – earlier than originally planned. What remains is a residual pit that will become Lake Inde over the next 30 years. But how will this change unfold? What opportunities arise, what challenges? Municipal planning thinks in land-use plans and zoning schemes. Time horizon: five to ten years, clear specifications, measurable goals. Our Scenarios 2060, by contrast, take a different approach to long time spans: not forecasts, but equally valid possibility spaces and points of orientation. Because new realities call for new images.
OERs for Schools
Analysis of Influencing Factors
Stakeholder Mapping
“With Scenarios 2060, Ellery Studio created inspiring and strategically valuable images of the future – well-founded, practical, and sustainably useful for the Indeland”
Svenja Zeimetz, Participation Manager at Entwicklungsgesellschaft indeland
Project Team and Publication of the Scenarios
Deliverables
Four Paths into an Uncertain Future
The result: four narrative scenarios that play out different development paths through to 2060. Each follows its own logic: “Guest Land” bets on tourism and regional cooperation, “Lab Land” on innovation and a spirit of experimentation, “Change Land” on community and participation, “Harvest Land” on research and agriculture. What makes this special: all scenarios emerged from an intensive participation process involving more than 70 people from the region, spanning business, politics, planning, education, and civil society. In this way, scenarios become navigation tools for uncertain times.
1
Participatory Scenario Process
Interviews, focus groups, stakeholder workshops, and writing and futures workshops with citizens, experts, and young people. More than 70 participants worked together to develop the foundations for four alternative images of the future.
2
Future Narratives
Four fully written stories set in the year 2060 that make different lived realities and development paths tangible. Complemented by backcasting, causal narratives, and timelines.
3
High-Quality Results Publication
An 80-page brochure with an innovative layout, illustrations, and thoughtful information architecture. Tabs, fold-out elements, and visual navigation tools.
4
OERs & Strategic Communication Tools
Scenarios as a basis for discussion for politics, planning, education, and civil society. A guide for long-term decisions and measure planning in the region.
