Strategic Foresight: Planning Certainty in an Age of Polycrisis
Decarbonization 2045: Transforming Energy-Intensive Industry
Methodological process facilitation for strategic futures thinking at the Cluster for Decarbonization of Industry
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German industry is under pressure. Climate neutrality by 2045 is the goal, but the path there remains unclear. Energy-intensive sectors such as cement, glass, paper, and steel must invest billions without knowing which technologies will prevail, whether infrastructure will be ready in time, or how public acceptance will develop. In this environment, companies need strategic foresight.
The Challenge
When Transformation Becomes a Breaking Point
Without planning certainty, investment decisions stand on shaky ground. Energy-intensive industries today operate in an environment full of uncertainty: regulation, raw material availability, public acceptance. Ellery Studio supported CDI in finding an answer – not through predictions, but through structured thinking in possibilities. The result: four scenarios, early indicators, and robust courses of action for different futures.
Deliverables
Future Scenarios as a Stress Test for Today's Strategies
The process produced more than methodological know-how – it produced concrete images of the future for the year 2045. Four scenarios reflect different transformation pathways. Each scenario was developed around six key factors covering social, technological, ecological, economic, and political dimensions.
1
Four Future Scenarios
Systematically developed, plausible images of the future for 2045 that play out different conditions for industrial decarbonization. Each scenario is built on six key factors spanning all STEEP dimensions.
2
Methodology Training in Futures Thinking
Systematic teaching of futures-research tools, from weak signals through STEEP analysis to scenario construction and backcasting. Enables participants to apply the methods independently within their own organizations.
3
Academic Support from BTU Cottbus
Expert input from Prof. Dr. Roh Pin Lee on STEEP analysis and the carbon transition, integrated into the workshop design. This ensured methodological rigor and gave the results scientific credibility while keeping them practice-oriented.
4
Early Indicators and Leverage Points
Concrete signals that companies should monitor to detect change early. Strategic intervention points where targeted action creates systemic impact.
5
Visualization Poster
A graphic distillation of the results as a basis for communication and discussion at C-level and in internal strategy processes. Enables a quick overview of complex interrelationships.
